#askmeanything #HerbKeinon #TrumpClinton #USElection #JerusalemPost
Trump clinton stitch
1 new comment

Comments

Mysababa 1
mysababa admin

Thank you so much Herb for your fantastic contributions to the conversation. Some great answers, and we look forward to welcoming you back.



Img 0877
seld

I recall some question in Israel about the accuracy of pre-election polling in the most recent election. Do you think we might have the same problem in getting accurate polls in the age of cell phones, caller ID, internet push polls, etc.?


Herb
herbkeinon Star Guest Speaker

In the last election, the polls almost universally predicted a Likud defeat. Israel is a country of many different bubbles -- Jews, Arabs, haredim, settlers, etc. It seems some bubbles were easier to poll, than others.




Blue user icon
jimtilly

Why did Bibi and Obama fight so often? Top 2 reasons?


Herb
herbkeinon Star Guest Speaker

Reason 1: The two men see the world through completely different glasses. In 2008 the US went to the polls and elected Obama, who was to the left of his predecessor, George Bush. A few weeks later, the Israelis went to the polls and voted in someone to the right of his predecessor, Ehud Olmert. It's like a bridge: If you move the pillars of the bridge apart, there will be more stress on the bridge.



Herb
herbkeinon Star Guest Speaker

The second reason, I believe, is because President Obama felt that he could gain an advantage with the Arab countries by showing some "daylight" with Israel. There have always been disagreements, what was different this time was that the Administration, at least in the beginning, felt that some benefit could be gained by making those disagreements public.




Picture?1390920615
dsel

What was the most contentious Israeli election that you remember? How did the country come together after the fact?



Mysababa 1
mysababa admin

We'd like to welcome Herb Keinon to our Ask Me Anything. Great questions so far, and we're excited to hear from him. Let's go!


Herb
herbkeinon Star Guest Speaker

The 1981 elections between Menachem Begin and Shimon Peres was the most contentious election that I can remember. Generally it is external challenges and threats that unite Israelis -- to a certain degree -- after bitter elections.




Picture for bio
lms1027

In light of the fact that many, many Trump supporters (especially on Twitter) are anti-Semitic (not to mention Trump's tweet with the "sheriff star")... How do you feel about organizations like "Jews for Trump?" How about the fact that Sheldon Adelson is donating tons of money to the Trump campaign?


Herb
herbkeinon Star Guest Speaker

Regarding Adelson's donations, I would say those are as legitimate as the Jewish billionaires who are the leading contributors to Clinton's campaign.



Herb
herbkeinon Star Guest Speaker

The anti-Semitism of some of Trump supporters is -- obviously -- deplorable. By the same token, less is being made of the anti-Semitism, in the guise of anti-Zionism, of some on the far left who, presumably, are Clinton supporters.




Blue user icon
gogogadget

Trump says he'll move the capital to Jerusalem. How important can that really be to the Israeli public???


Herb
herbkeinon Star Guest Speaker

Over countless promises over the years by previous candidates to move the embassy to Jerusalem -- all of which came to naught -- I think most Israelis realize that on this issue what the candidates say before the election does not really matter all that much. There is little real expectations that the US will be moving its embassy any time soon.




Blue user icon
inthetreesdan

What is it about the U.S election(s) that so fascinates Israelis? Beyond that, what fascinated you?


Herb
herbkeinon Star Guest Speaker

Secondly, there is in Israel a general fascination with what happens in America, partly because so many Israelis have spent time there, especially those in the media. And, finally, the craziness of this particular election has riveted Israelis, just as it has riveted Americans.



Herb
herbkeinon Star Guest Speaker

First of all, most Israelis appreciate the importance of the US-Israel relationship, and understand that outside of their own government, there is no one on the planet who has more significance to their own personal security than the US president. As a result, the identity of that person is vitally important.




Download (1)
arya snark

what are the biggest concerns Israelis have about each candidate?


Herb
herbkeinon Star Guest Speaker

The biggest concern about Trump is that he has no real policy record on Israel. It is difficult for anyone to say with much certainty what his policies will be, since there is no track record.



Herb
herbkeinon Star Guest Speaker

The biggest concern about Clinton is that she will be beholden to the left wing of the Democratic party, a wing that may be problematic for Israel.




Blue user icon
nym

do you think Hillary's relationship with Bibi would come with some prejudgment given her position as SoS under Obama?


Herb
herbkeinon Star Guest Speaker

Hillary and Bibi have a relationship that goes back more than 20 years. It is interesting that in the Wikileaks e-mails, a senior Israeli official was quoted as saying that Netanyahu has a "surprisingly good" relationship with Clinton, and that his main concern has to do with those around her. That e-mail also said that in the famous 43-minute dressing down Clinton gave Netanyahu in 2010 after the announcement of new housing in a Jerusalem neighborhood over the Green Line, the sense was that she was reading froma script provided by the WHite House.




Samtheguy
samtotl

Is "Israeli relations" always the number one issue the israeli public cares about when it comes to US potus? what is the next issue on their list?


Herb
herbkeinon Star Guest Speaker

Yes, the President's relationship with Israel is the number one factor when Israelis evaluate a candidate. In a similar manner, the president's overall attitude toward international affairs -- isolationist versus grater involvement -- is also of particular interest. US domestic issues do not resonate that much with the Israeli public.




Blue user icon
podush

Thanks for doing the talk... what do you consider is the greatest opportunity (for Israel) with each candidate? the greatest downside?


Herb
herbkeinon Star Guest Speaker

Regarding Trump, the greatest opportunity is that he may not make the settlements as big an issue as they have become under Obama. The biggest concern is that he may pursue an isolationist American foreign policy, something not at all in Israel's interests.



Herb
herbkeinon Star Guest Speaker

The greatest opportunity when it comes to Clinton is the probability that the WHite House's overall tone toward Israel will change. There is a sense in Jerusalem that Clinton understands what makes Israelis click better than Obama did, and that she realizes that you can get more from the government with honey, than with vinegar. The expectation is that her tone will be significantly different. The greatest downside, from the present government's vantage point, is that she may surround herself with many of the same people who formulated the current set of Mideast policies.



Herb
herbkeinon Star Guest Speaker

The greatest opportunity for both candidates is the ability to start off on a new page. The ability to "reset" the relationship, and put it perhaps on a less publicly contentious footing from the outset is something beneficial for Israel.




Blue user icon
dewali

Any worry about Huma Abedin?


Herb
herbkeinon Star Guest Speaker

I have not heard any specific concern in Jerusalem about Abedin. I think there is a great deal of interest in general regarding who will be surrounding both candidates.




Blue user icon
theendmyfriend

If there were a third candidate, which would it be?



Blue user icon
loze

Women in this country running for political office seem to face challenges that men don't - double standard on "poise" (Hillary stayed cool @ the debate... I would have exploded), "honesty," or even what they wear. Golda Meir came to power in a completely different era. Do you think Israel has the same gender barriers now? Could Golda beat Bibi in a hypothetical race?


Herb
herbkeinon Star Guest Speaker

Interesting question about Golda vs. Bibi. I don't think Golda could win that hypothetical race today, not because of gender, but rather because Israel has changed so dramatically -- both politically and demographically -- in the last fifty years. I think that if the right female candidate would come around, she could win an election in Israel. Remember, in the 2009 elections, Tzipi Livni's party actually defeated Netanyahu's Likud at the polls, but politically she was unable to put together a coalition.




Blue user icon
molly

The general consensus, regardless of candidate preference, is that the atmosphere over this election has been toxic. How does the partisanship in the 2016 race compare to the average Israeli national elections? Are we just spoiled with a two-party system? Is this level of nastiness the norm in Parliamentary systems?


Herb
herbkeinon Star Guest Speaker

I think the overall ugliness of the campaign has had a sobering impact on the Israeli public, which has a tendency to over-idealize the American system. Israelis often look at its own political dysfunction, and say, "Well, this would never happen in a 'real' country, this would never happen in America. The tenor and one of the campaign has driven home the idea that although there may be problems with how we chose our leaders in Israel, no system is without its problems -- even America.




Blue user icon
theuse

Are people concerned that Trump would halt financial aid to countries, including eventually Israel?


Herb
herbkeinon Star Guest Speaker

Trump's comments about foreign aid, and in fact his comment that some countries need to pay back, were noted in Jerusalem. This may be one of the reasons that Netanyahu was eager in completing the $38 billion Memorandum of Understanding under Obama, rather than waiting for the next president -- not knowing what that next president might do.




Blue user icon
iadv

I'm interested in the idea of a "relations reset." How do you think the US-Israel relationship changes under each candidate?


Herb
herbkeinon Star Guest Speaker

After the relatively rocky eight year relationship between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Obama, I think its safe to say that both sides will want to start off with a fresh page in January. I think that in the short term we will see an improvement in the tone of the relations, regardless of who is elected. Going forward, however, I think there are bound to be disagreements between the two countries, regardless of who wins in November, because the two countries do have different interest. . The hope in Jerusalem is, however, that these inevitable disagreement will be less public than they were with Obama.




Blue user icon
zmoore613

What do you think Trump's chances are after the FBI investigation and Trump's surge in the polls, and in what ways do you think the Trump and Clinton administrations would be different regarding Israel?



Imageas
imageasa

Who's *your* candidate? And if you cant or wont answer that, who is the JPosts candidate?



Blue user icon
womenfirst

I've seen dozens of articles about the US election in Israeli newspapers. Is the Israeli public that interested, or is it just the writers / politicians?


Herb
herbkeinon Star Guest Speaker

The public is interested, but I think that there is a great deal more interest among those who cover the news, than the average person on the street.




Mysababa 1
mysababa admin

It’s almost over. Just before midnight on Tuesday, November 8, the contentious, exhausting Presidential election of 2016 will be a (probably bad) memory. Before that, however, urgent questions remain – what does this election mean to Israel’s most critical ally in the world? What would a Trump or Clinton victory mean for U.S.-Israel relations? Who do Israelis want to see in the White House? Herb Keinon, diplomatic correspondent for The Jerusalem Post will answer your questions at this special, timely Ask Me Anything.

Ask your questions now!

Herb Keinon is The Jerusalem Post’s veteran diplomatic correspondent and a frequent lecturer on Israeli diplomacy and public affairs. In addition to reporting on diplomacy and Israel’s foreign policy, Keinon has also written a “light” column over the last 25 years on living and raising a family in Israel. A collection of those popular columns, French Fries in Pita, was released in May. Keinon has a BA in political science from the University of Colorado, Boulder, and an MA in Journalism from the University of Illinois, Champaign-Urbana.



Submission Stats

Submitted: 10/28/2016 ( 8 months ago)

Submitted by: mysababa admin

Views: 1731

Comments: 44

Likes: 23

Tribefest 2014